Pending Home Sales Hit 3-Year High

Freddy Kling
Dec 29, 2025
3 min read

Updated: 2 days ago

The housing market received a good surge in November, signaling that buyers are stepping back into the market.

According to recent data on Pending Home Sales, a forecasting indicator that measures signed contracts on existing homes — activity rose sharply by 3.3% in November. This number blew past expectations, as market forecasters had predicted only a modest 1% gain. Furthermore, October's data was revised upward, showing even stronger momentum leading into the winter.

Why This Matters for Mortgage Watchers

This jump pushes the level of pending sales to its highest point in nearly three years. What’s driving this renewed activity? The data implies a clear correlation with the mortgage rate environment. As rates have softened on a relative basis recently, buyer demand has responded almost immediately.

The year-over-year numbers confirm this trend reversal. Pending sales are now up 2.6% compared to last year—a massive improvement from the negative territory (-0.4%) seen just a month prior in October.

The Takeaway: The appetite for homeownership remains strong.

When interest rates dip enough to improve affordability, buyers are quick to lock in contracts. If this rate trend continues, we could be building the momentum for a very busy spring buying season.

CEOs Signal Cooling Labor Market

Cooling Job Market and the Case for Future Rate Cuts

A recent survey conducted by the Yale School of Management offers a sobering look at what business leaders expect for the labor market in 2026, with significant implications for economic policy and interest rates. Yale hosted dozens of CEOs and found a distinct lack of hiring optimism. Two-thirds (66%) of surveyed CEOs stated they plan to either fire workers or keep their team sizes flat in 2026. Only one-third plan to hire next year.

Connecting Jobs to Rates

This sentiment aligns with other data pointing to a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.6%, and recent jobs reports have been lackluster. The report suggests that labor strength has been overstated, setting the stage for the Federal Reserve to consider additional rate cuts next year to support the economy.

Simultaneously, consumers are feeling the pinch and pulling back on discretionary spending. A stark example of this tightening belt is subscription services: two years ago, the average person held 4.4 subscriptions; that number fell to 4.1 last year and is now just 2.8.

The Takeaway: While a weakening job market is challenging, bad economic news is often "good" news for mortgage rates.

If the Fed perceives a significant cooling in labor and consumer spending, it is more likely to cut rates aggressively, which could lead to lower borrowing costs for homeowners in the near future.

Fed Rate Cut Probability on January 28, 2026:

There is a 16.1% chance there will be a rate cut and 83.9% chance it will stay the same.

Fed Rate Cut Probability on March 18, 2026:

There is a 6.9% chance of a 50 bps cut, 45.4% chance of a 25 bps cut, and 47.7% chance it will stay the same.

Meet the Broker:

Freddy Kling, Simplicity Mortgage

Simplicity Mortgage is a one stop mortgage shop, where I make homeownership dreams come true. Our extensive portfolio and simplified loan process allows us to close loans quickly and successfully, while providing each client an exceptional customer experience.

I come from a family of entrepreneurs and have always understood the value of integrity, challenging work, and dedication. It is extremely important to me that clients and referral partners appreciate that I am available and responsive around the clock.

I have been a resident of Florida for over 50 years and graduated from Embry Riddle Aeronautical University with a bachelor's degree, majoring in computer science and a minor in Information Technology and Mathematics.

Call me today to discuss your real estate goals!

386-401-9000